Two, trick 10 of 12. You are the Declarer, about to lead. Your remaining cards: XXI, VIII, K♣. Still unaccounted for: the Skus and the Pagat. Your called partner has not yet revealed themselves.
Is leading the Moon now safe, risky, or does it depend on something you cannot see?
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Answer
It depends on where the Pagat is. If your partner still holds the Pagat and follows into this very trick, Skus, Mond and Pagat can collide together and the Emperor’s Trick hands the trick to the small card, saving your Moon completely. But if an opponent holds the Pagat, or your partner has already spent it, a bare Skus beats your Moon outright, and every opponent adds 20 Victory Points. With the Pagat’s location still unknown, leading the Moon here is a gamble, not a plan: play VIII or K♣ instead and wait for a moment you actually control.