Slovenian Tarok: Puzzle E3

SLO-E3 Puzzle

One. You called the King of Hearts; it turned up alone in the talon (One's six groups are single cards), and the king-rescue brings your Khearts to hand while the other five talon cards, Qdiamonds, VI, 8spades, III, 7clubs, wait face-down beside the table. Trick 4: Hearts are led, an opponent shows void and trumps your Khearts with the XVII.

What happens to the five waiting cards, and what does this teach about relying on a rescued King?

Reveal answer

Answer

All five are lost for good: they join the defenders’ side as if the rescue had never happened, because only a trick actually WON by the Khearts delivers them, and the Khearts never won one. The King ladder says a lone King in an 8-card suit survives about 78% of the time, only a 22% chance anyone can trump it the first time the suit is led: strong odds, not a certainty. But a rescued King is not an ordinary lone King: five waiting cards ride on its back, and a defender who spots that treasure has every reason to spend a Tarok on it that they might otherwise have saved, so real survival here runs worse than that generic 78%. This hand drew the unlucky quarter, and the whole rescue, five cards and all, went down with the King.