Calling the King — Puzzle E3

You declared Bettler and have not won a trick yet: three tricks to go, and it is your lead (the Declarer always leads in Bettler). Your last three cards: XVII, 3♦, 8♣. The Skus, XXI, XX, XIX and XVIII have all already fallen in earlier tricks.

koenigrufen Puzzle #205

What do you lead, and why?

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Answer

Lead the 3♦ or the 8♣, never the XVII. With the five Taroks above it already gone, your XVII is now the single highest Tarok left in the whole game: lead it and nothing at the table can beat it, so it wins by default and the Bettler dies on the spot. A color card at least gives the field a chance to out-rank or trump you; the Tarok gives them none. Counting your outs is not just about your own hand, it is about which danger cards are already dead.